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Election Watch by Digital Public Square is a series of reports based on our ongoing monitoring of online narratives promoting extremism, violence, and polarization amid the upcoming Canadian federal election.
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What's the narrative?
“Canada should become the 51st state”. Conversation around this sentiment has been circulating steadily online amid repeated calls for the annexation of Canada by US President Donald Trump and his ally Elon Musk. In February, Musk claimed that Canada is “not a real country” after a petition circulated to revoke his Canadian citizenship status.
Through monitoring the online discourse around this narrative, we have observed some Canadian-identifying accounts promoting this narrative. Some Canadians who support the 51st state narrative suggest that their province—most commonly Alberta—should join the US, rather than Canada as a whole. This echoes secessionist narratives that have a longstanding history in Canada.
Who's promoting the narrative?
“Canada should become the 51st state” is being promoted by disaffected Canadians in primarily right-wing information spaces. These include alternative media outlets, social media platforms, and supporter pages for some Conservative politicians. Supporters of the narrative tend to express disillusionment with the Canadian government, saying that they would rather be the 51st state than live under a government they label as “Liberal”, “Communist”, or “Marxist.” These supporters argue that the "Canadian dream” is no longer achievable and that they would have more economic opportunities and freedoms as part of the US.
Polls conducted by Angus Reid in January and March found that 90 percent of respondents would vote ‘no’ to Canada becoming part of the US. A minority of Canadians—one in 10—would support joining the US. While it may be small, this base of support should not be discounted, as this percentage has been consistent since the narrative gained traction in December 2024.
Financial precarity and disillusionment may be making the 51st state narrative attractive among this segment of Canadians. For instance, according to a January Ipsos poll, 43 percent of Canadians aged 18-34 said they would vote to join the US if they were offered full citizenship and conversion of financial assets to US dollars.
Why's it important?
It’s tempting to conclude that the 51st state narrative is a product of foreign interference— CBC and The Globe and Mail both flagged foreign interference from the US as a potential threat to influence Canada’s upcoming federal election. While there is clear amplification from political actors in the US, some of the engagement with the 51st state narrative appears to be from within Canada. Based on our monitoring, this appears to stem from frustration and grievances about the incumbent Liberal government and the cost of living crisis.
Discourse around narratives like this can become charged with emotional language, creating polarizing online environments that can be vectors for misinformation and other harmful content such as harassment or violence. When these types of narratives proliferate, it can undermine social cohesion and trust in Canadian institutions. The possibility of influential political and media actors in the US promoting these narratives during Canada’s election period poses further risks, and requires that Canadians stay vigilant of misinformation and extreme narratives both online and offline.
Digital Public Square does not include links to or screenshots of content promoting extremism, violence, and polarization so that it is not amplified.
Written by Nafeesa Dewji